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compare peer predictions within the same round only

rasmusjy committed Jul 13, 2026, 1:20 PM

commit 63ff2ec

3 changed files with +33 and −3

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modified src/components/debate/critique-matrix.tsx +8 −1

		@@ -88,7 +88,14 @@export function CritiqueMatrix({
88	88	</th>
89	89	))}
90	90	<th className="p-1 text-xs font-medium text-muted-foreground">avg recv</th>
91		- {predictions.any && <th className="p-1 text-xs font-medium text-muted-foreground">council read</th>}
	91	+ {predictions.any && (
	92	+ <th
	93	+ className="p-1 text-xs font-medium text-muted-foreground"
	94	+ title="Mean error of this reviewer's council-average predictions in this round; lower reads the council better"
	95	+ >
	96	+ council read
	97	+ </th>
	98	+ )}
92	99	</tr>
93	100	</thead>
94	101	<tbody>

modified src/core/scoring.test.ts +9 −0

		@@ -122,6 +122,15 @@describe('buildPredictionCells', () => {
122	122	const critiques = [critiqueWithPredictions('p0', { p1: { score: 5 } })];
123	123	expect(buildPredictionCells(participants, critiques)).toHaveLength(0);
124	124	});
	125	+
	126	+ it('compares predictions only against scores from the same round', () => {
	127	+ const round1 = critiqueWithPredictions('p0', { p2: { score: 3, predicted: 7 } });
	128	+ const round1Peer = critiqueWithPredictions('p1', { p2: { score: 8 } });
	129	+ const round2Peer = { ...critiqueWithPredictions('p1', { p2: { score: 4 } }), round: 2 };
	130	+ const cells = buildPredictionCells(participants, [round1, round1Peer, round2Peer]);
	131	+ // The round-1 prediction must see round-1's 8, not round-2's 4.
	132	+ expect(cells[0]!.actualPeerMean).toBe(8);
	133	+ });
125	134	});
126	135
127	136	describe('classifyPrediction', () => {

modified src/core/scoring.ts +16 −2

		@@ -98,15 +98,29 @@export function classifyPrediction(cell: PredictionCell): PredictionReading \| nu
98	98	: 'miscalibrated';
99	99	}
100	100
101		-/** One cell per review that carried a `predictedPeerMean`. */
	101	+/**
	102	+ * One cell per review that carried a `predictedPeerMean`. Predictions are
	103	+ * compared against the scores from the SAME round only - mixing rounds would
	104	+ * judge a round-1 prediction against a round-2 consensus.
	105	+ */
102	106	export function buildPredictionCells(
103	107	participants: Participant[],
104	108	critiques: CritiqueRecord[],
105	109	): PredictionCell[] {
106		- const matrix = buildScoreMatrix(participants, critiques);
	110	+ const matrixByRound = new Map<number, ScoreMatrix>();
	111	+ const matrixFor = (round: number): ScoreMatrix => {
	112	+ let m = matrixByRound.get(round);
	113	+ if (!m) {
	114	+ m = buildScoreMatrix(participants, critiques.filter((c) => c.round === round));
	115	+ matrixByRound.set(round, m);
	116	+ }
	117	+ return m;
	118	+ };
	119	+
107	120	const cells: PredictionCell[] = [];
108	121	for (const critique of critiques) {
109	122	const reviewerId = critique.reviewerParticipantId;
	123	+ const matrix = matrixFor(critique.round);
110	124	if (!matrix.cells[reviewerId]) continue;
111	125	for (const review of critique.reviews) {
112	126	if (review.predictedPeerMean === undefined) continue;